What Is a Broadcast ‘Hit’ Rating Now?

“Broadcast’s back, baby!” one network head recently crowed to Variety. And actually, they’re not wrong. After last year’s disastrous fall, when the Hollywood strikes led to a mostly improvised lineup, the networks are finally back in full force. And despite a messy launch disrupted by the election, extreme weather events and a media business in freefall, broadcast has reason to feel a little pep in its step.

Fall TV, of course, isn’t what it used to be when broadcast was the only game in town. But as the industry adjusts to a new normal in how viewers consume television, primetime series are showing true resilience. As the full data comes in, there’s been a surprising interest in the new crop of scripted fare on the traditional Big Four.

ABC’s “High Potential” was an immediate smash hit, growing its audience every week for its first three episodes — the first time a broadcast show has done that since Fox’s “Empire” in 2015. Over at CBS, “Matlock” impressed execs so much that they picked it up for Season 2 after two episodes, while “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” also grew in its second week (and has also already scored a renewal). NBC’s Reba McEntire comedy “Happy’s Place” opened strong on a Friday — a night the networks have mostly given up on. And Fox was encouraged by the first-week returns for its John Wells newcomer “Rescue: HI-Surf.”

It seems a bit foolish to call any of these entries a success, judging by the overnight or live+same-day Nielsen ratings. Now, initial ratings tend to be dismal, which shouldn’t come as a shock: Audiences long ago changed their TV habits, and that first night total viewer number is just the start of a long tail. “These days,” says Steve Kern, NBC senior VP of content planning, acquisitions and strategy, “everything is a hit, and nothing is a hit.”

Kern says decisions can’t be made off live+same-day numbers, but they’re a starting point. “There’s so much original programming coming out on a daily basis from everyone, and people are on YouTube,” he says. “So you can’t really get a read for a few days or a week on how things are doing.”

What’s a good initial number then? It’s all relative, to be sure: There’s the time slot, the competition, the program genre, the lead-in. (The NFL, for instance, will deliver a huge audience to a lead-out, but it’s impossible to read that as a hit.) The ratings trajectory of “High Potential” gives one indication of what’s considered a success: The show launched on Tuesday, Sept. 17, at 10 p.m. — a tough time slot, as that’s when viewers usually catch up on things they’ve missed — with 3.59 million viewers and a 0.35 rating in the adults 18-49 demo.

Another example is “Happy’s Place,” which pleasantly surprised NBC by opening on Friday, Oct. 18, with 4.03 million viewers and a 0.35 rating with adults 18-49. And in its time-slot premiere on Thursday, Oct. 17, “Matlock” averaged 6.38 million viewers (with a 0.36 in the demo), while the series launch of “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” landed 6.56 million viewers and 0.47 in the demo. (CBS is currently not a Nielsen subscriber, but those ratings are still readily available for competitors.)

Consider those numbers the new live+same-day benchmarks. But what about time-shifted usage via DVRs and VOD (yes, those are still a thing) and performance on streamers like Hulu, Paramount+ and Peacock? Starting this year, Nielsen now provides extended multi-platform numbers to its subscribers — so for the first time, the networks have a better picture of how their competitors’ shows are faring throughout the weeks that follow.

At this point, if you’re seeing a seven-day multi-platform number that is 9 or 10 million viewers or above, you have something — like “Happy’s Place” or “High Potential” — that’s really clicking with a pretty broad audience. And after 35 days, some shows — such as ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” in Season 4 — can reach an average of 20 million viewers and even a 2, 3 or 4 rating in the demo.

“Live-plus-same-day numbers do not remotely portray the success of scripted programming. We’re seeing enormous traction in playback, both on the DVR and certainly on Hulu and our direct-to-consumer platforms,” says Ari Goldman, senior VP of content strategy and scheduling at ABC. Add in multi-platform ratings, and some shows are drawing audiences that would have made a network proud in the 2000s. “You’re getting to numbers that we would have thought 15 years ago were pretty solid.”

You might say this fall’s “High Potential” finds the networks in a “Happy’s Place.”