Conclave, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain and More

The 51st edition of the Telluride Film Festival concluded on Labor Day, with three standout films generating significant Oscar buzz: Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora,” Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” and Jason Reitman’s dark comedy “Saturday Night.”

Distributed by Sony Pictures, “Saturday Night” marks Reitman’s return to both directing and screenwriting, collaborating with co-writer Gil Kenan. While the film takes a high-tension look at the 90 minutes leading up to the first episode of the iconic sketch show “Saturday Night Live,” it has received mixed reactions from critics. However, history has shown that critical reception does not always align with Oscar success, as evidenced by past Best Picture winners like “Green Book” (2018) and “CODA” (2021). The No. 1 rule of Oscar punditry is to remember critics are not Oscar voters.

On the other hand, RaMell Ross’s “Nickel Boys” could be poised to make an impression with both the L.A. and New York Film Critics Awards, given its passionate reception from some of the nation’s top critics. However, with its unconventional storytelling approach, the film might struggle to engage casual viewers, and mainstream AMPAS voters often gravitate toward more accessible films. If movies such as Ava DuVernay’s “Origin” (2022) and Chinonye Chukwu’s “Till” (2022) faced challenges in gaining traction with Academy members, Ross’s highly respected film could encounter a similar fate.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

Several other films made an impact in the Colorado mountains. Malcolm Washington’s directorial debut “The Piano Lesson” hopes to follow in the footsteps of another August Wilson adaptation, “Fences,” directed by Denzel Washington, who also produces this film alongside Todd Black. Danielle Deadwyler has emerged as an early favorite for best supporting actress, with more acting possibilities likely to come.

Angelina Jolie has positioned herself as a Best Actress contender for her portrayal of famed opera singer Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín’s biopic “Maria.”

Other noteworthy films include Morgan Neville’s animated biopic “Piece by Piece,” which chronicles the upbringing of musician Pharrell Williams. This film could be a contender in the Animated Feature category, with potential for an Original Song nomination as well. Additionally, Robbie Williams’s portrayal of himself as a CGI monkey in Michael Gracey’s fantastical musical “Better Man” could be among Visual Effects contenders.

Below are some of the Oscar prospects from major titles that screened at Telluride:

“Conclave” soars into the race with Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci.

Following the success of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won four Oscars, director Edward Berger returns with the religious and political thriller “Conclave.” The film boasts an impressive cast, a taut script by Peter Straughan, and stunning cinematography and editing by Stéphane Fontaine and Nick Emerson.

Ralph Fiennes, who hasn’t been nominated since his roles in two Best Picture winners — 1993’s “Schindler’s List” and 1996’s “The English Patient” — is overdue for recognition. It’s almost Hollywood malpractice that the English actor hasn’t made it to the Dolby stage despite standout performances in films like “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Co-star Stanley Tucci, who earned a single nomination for “The Lovely Bones” (2009), could also return to the Oscar race with his role as a slick-talking cardinal. Whether Isabella Rossellini, who surprisingly has never been nominated, will join the Oscar conversation remains to be seen. Her role is small, but as other veterans like Jacki Weaver (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Alan Alda (“The Aviator”) have proven, screen time isn’t always a barrier.

“Nickel Boys” will have the critics’ backing, but the Oscars may be more difficult.

As mentioned earlier, RaMell Ross’s adaptation of the Colson Whitehead novel received a mixed reception at Telluride. While the film is likely to earn admiration from the Directors Branch for its well-thought-out and emotionally symbolic vision, the challenge will be getting AMPAS voters to watch the 140-minute drama in its entirety. Despite a strong supporting performance by Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“King Richard”), the film’s first-person POV might lead some voters to turn it off prematurely. However, the cinematography by Jomo Fay and the sound design team are more than worthy of being in the conversation for nominations.

Will the fifth time Be the charm for Saoirse Ronan in “The Outrun”?

Four-time Oscar-nominated actor Saoirse Ronan was one of three honorees recognized at this year’s Telluride Film Festival. Julie Huntsinger, executive director of the festival, told Variety that the festival wanted to honor Ronan in 2017 for “Lady Bird,” but she couldn’t attend due to filming “Mary Queen of Scots.” In “The Outrun,” which Ronan also produced, she takes on the most adult role of her career. At 30, Ronan is already considered overdue for an Oscar by pundits and audiences alike.

However, a few factors could hinder her chances of a win in March. While Ronan’s performance is superb, the drama directed by Nora Fingscheidt about a former addict recovering in the Orkney Islands wasn’t universally adored by critics. Additionally, Ronan has an upcoming buzzworthy role in Steve McQueen’s World War II epic “Blitz” from Apple Original Films. Though early reports suggest her role is supporting, members of the Actors Branch might be more inclined to vote for her in that category, especially if “Blitz” emerges as a stronger contender across multiple Oscar categories.

If Ronan secures her fifth nomination, she will surpass Jennifer Lawrence’s record of becoming the youngest to receive four Oscar nominations, which Lawrence achieved at 25. Ronan could become the youngest to have five — or possibly six — nominations.

This scenario might mimic Kate Winslet’s 2008 Oscar run when she was nearly double-nominated for “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” The Academy ultimately moved Winslet to the lead category for the latter role despite her winning supporting actress awards at other ceremonies.

Animation Peaks With “Memoir of a Snail”

Australian filmmaker Adam Elliott’s endearing adult-animation drama “Memoir of a Snail” left attendees at Telluride over the moon — and in tears. IFC Films is pushing the film significantly, hoping it can also compete in the original screenplay race.

One of the festival’s standout moments was when actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong posed with the film’s main character, Grace Pudel, who is voiced by their former “Succession” castmate Sarah Snook. Culkin and Strong were at the festival for their films “A Real Pain” from Searchlight Pictures and “The Apprentice” from Briarcliff. A genius move.

“A Real Pain” is the Real Deal for Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg

The emotional dramedy “A Real Pain,” written, directed, produced, and starring Jesse Eisenberg, was a surprise screening at Telluride. Eisenberg and co-star Kieran Culkin were both in attendance, showing their commitment to the film even as Eisenberg is in the middle of filming the next installment of “Now You See Me.”

Emma Stone, who also produced the film and won Best Actress last year, was supposed to attend but had to cancel at the last minute due to COVID-19.

Searchlight Pictures is hoping for a well-executed campaign that could mirror the success of “Past Lives” last year. Based on the reception, the 88-minute film has the potential to go even further.

Culkin’s standout performance, likely to be campaigned in the supporting actor category, was the talk of Main Street and could put him in serious contention for his first Oscar nomination. Fun fact: Pedro Pascal, who has a role in “Gladiator II,” could also be vying for a nomination, potentially recreating the bromance between Culkin and Pascal seen during their runs on “Succession” and “The Last of Us.”

The lead actor category may be too crowded for Oscar nominee Eisenberg (“The Social Network”). Still, original screenplay is where a heartwarming and affecting film like this could find respect from the Academy. There’s also a chance it could pull in a Best Picture nomination.

Will Ferrell Could Land His First Oscar Nomination for the Documentary “Will & Harper”

Will Ferrell has become one of film’s most beloved comedic actors, with standout performances in films such as “Stranger than Fiction” and “Old School.”

Now, he’s part of the joyful documentary “Will & Harper,” which follows Ferrell on a road trip with his best friend after she transitions. As one of the few documentaries at Telluride that had to turn away large crowds, Ferrell’s charming star persona could put him in the hunt for his first Oscar nomination as a producer. Perhaps the Documentary Branch will recognize the film’s merits, as festival-goers have.

Will “All We Imagine as Light” Be India’s Selection for International Feature?

Payal Kapadia’s film “All We Imagine as Light,” the Cannes runner-up, could be a strong contender in the awards race. Janus Films and Sideshow must campaign vigorously to keep it in the discussion.

However, India has a history of controversial selections, such as passing on the epic “RRR” in favor of another film that wasn’t nominated. “RRR” went on to win an Oscar for Best Original Song.

Will India make the same mistake again?

“The Friend” Is a Solid Commercial Play

Scott McGehee and David Siegel brought their acquisition title “The Friend,” starring Naomi Watts and Bill Murray, to Telluride, where it received solid reviews from attendees.

The film, which tells the story of a woman who adopts her late friend and mentor’s Great Dane, feels more like a strong box office play than an awards contender. The filmmakers brought the dog Bing (named “Apollo” in the movie) to Telluride, where he charmed the town while sniffing around for buyers.

Will someone bite?