Awards

2025 Oscars Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Published

5 months ago

August 8, 2024

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay

Table of Contents

Screenshot courtesy Neon/YouTube

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 8, 2024): Originality often plays a significant role in this category, which frequently aligns with the best picture race.

Sean Baker could finally receive recognition with his dark comedy “Anora.” At the same time, the prestige of the World War II epic “Blitz” and the musical “Emilia Pérez” are likely to be at the forefront of voters’ minds.

The “x factor” in this race is Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night,” a film that delves into the first episode of the long-running NBC sketch show “Saturday Night Live” with an impressive acting ensemble. Reitman hasn’t been nominated since his work on “Juno” (in directing) and “Up in the Air” (double nominated for adapted screenplay and directing). Could this be the year he makes his return to the awards circuit?

More to come.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Rank	Performer & Film
1	“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen
2	“Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
3	“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard
4	“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
5	“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman

Oscars: Best Original Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

We Grown Now — Image Credit: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

Next in Line

Rank	Performer & Film
6	“His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs
7	“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof
8	“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia
9	“The End” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg
10	“We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig

Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Other Contenders

Rank	Performer & Film
11	“Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes
12	“In the Summers” (Music Box Films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio
13	“Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Steven Knight **
14	“Dìdi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang
15	“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson
16	“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot
17	“Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) — Josh Margolin
18	“Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh
19	“Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi
20	“We Live in Time” (A24) — Nick Payne

Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Writers (Best Original Screenplay)

Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia
- “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
- “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) — Gabriel Sherman **
- “Babygirl” (A24) — Halina Reijn
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Nathan Silver, C. Mason Wells
- “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols
- “Bird” (Mubi) — Andrea Arnold
- “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM) — Zoë Kravitz, E.T. Feigenbaum
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Terence Winter, Frank E. Flowers, Zach Baylin, Reinaldo Marcus Green
- “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes
- “Civil War” (A24) — Alex Garland
- “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Christy Hall
- “The Deb” (No U.S. Distribution) — Hannah Reilly, Rebel Wilson **
- “The Deliverance” (Netflix) — David Coggeshall, Elijah Bynum
- “A Different Man” (A24) — Aaron Schimberg
- “Dìdi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang
- “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Films) — Brad Inglesby **
- “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) — Noah Pink **
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard **
- “The End” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg
- “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) — Erica Tremblay, Miciana Alise
- “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža
- “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
- “Heretic” (A24) — Scott Beck, Bryan Woods
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs
- “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Baird, Kevin Costner, Mark Kasdan
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — Jane Schoenbrun
- “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — John Krasinski
- “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio
- “Janet Planet” (A24) — Annie Baker
- “K-Pops” (No U.S. Distribution) — Anderson .Paak, Khaila Amazan **
- “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh
- “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) — Kate Gersten **
- “Longlegs” (Neon) — Osgood Perkins
- “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24) — Rose Glass, Weronika Tofilska
- “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Steven Knight **
- “Meet the Barbarians” (No U.S. Distribution) — Julie Delpy, Matthieu Rumani, Nicolas Slomka **
- “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) — Francis Ford Coppola
- “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot
- “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Burns **
- “Misericordia” (Janus Films) — Alain Guiraudie **
- “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures) — Dev Patel, Paul Angunawela, John Collee
- “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM) — Megan Park
- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24) — Rungano Nyoni
- “Parthenope” (A24) — Paolo Sorrentino
- “Quisling – The Final Days” (No U.S. Distribution) — Anna Bache-Wiig, Ravn Lanesskog, Siv Rajendram Eliassen **
- “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
- “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) — Justin Piasecki **
- “Riff Raff” (No U.S. Distribution) — John Pollono **
- “Rumours” (Bleecker Street) — Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) — David Zellner
- “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof
- “Shirley” (Netflix) — John Ridley
- “The Shrouds” (No U.S. Distribution) — David Cronenberg **
- “Spellbound” (Netflix) — Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin, Julia Miranda
- “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder) — Robert Morgan, Robin King
- “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat
- “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) — Josh Margolin
- “Tuesday” (A24) — Daina O. Pusić
- “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig
- “We Live in Time” (A24) — Nick Payne
- “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) — Ian MacAllister McDonald
More Information (Oscars: Best Original Screenplay)

Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety
2024 category winner: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Arthur Harari & Justine Triet
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2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories

2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.