Awards

2025 Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

Published

5 months ago

August 9, 2024

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Adapted Screenplay

Table of Contents

A24

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 8, 2024): Biopics, sequels, and adaptations of beloved novels are set to make this category one to watch, with contenders like Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” the return of The Joker in “Joker: Folie à Deux,” and Colson Whitehead’s “Nickel Boys.”

As the festival circuit kicks off, we’ll get a clearer picture of how these films are received and how the race will unfold. However, there’s still plenty of mystery surrounding this awards season, and watching it all play out will be intriguing.

More to come.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Rank	Performer & Film
1	“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
2	“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
3	“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
4	“Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)
5	“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni)

Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Dune: Part Two — Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.

Next in Line

Rank	Performer & Film
6	“Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris)
7	“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson)
8	“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — Scott Silver, Todd Phillips (based on characters by DC Comics)
9	“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert)
10	“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown)

Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Rona (Saoirsa Ronan) — Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Film Festival

Other Contenders

Rank	Performer & Film
11	“Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) — Eric Champnella, Alex Harris, John Hindman (based on “Unstoppable: From Underdog to Undefeated: How I Became a Champion” by Anthony Robles, Austin Murphy)
12	“Hit Man” (Netflix) — Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)
13	“Here” (Sony Pictures) — Eric Roth, Robert Zemeckis (based on “Here” by Richard McGuire)
14	“Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs) **
15	“The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) — Scott McGehee, David Siegel (based on the book by Sigrid Nunez) **
16	“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Amy Liptrot, Nora Fingscheidt, Daisy Lewis (based on the book by Liptrot)
17	“Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) — Angelina Jolie (based on the novel by Alessandro Baricco) **
18	“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker)
19	“Rez Ball” (Netflix) — Sydney Freeland, Sterlin Harjo (based on “Canyon Dreams” by Michael Powell)
20	“Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (based on “Young Woman and the Sea” by Glenn Stout)

Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Writers (Best Adapted Screenplay)

Image Credit: Brian Roedel / Courtesy Netflix
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All categorizations are subject to change.
- “The Actor” (Neon) — Duke Johnson, Stephen Cooney (based on “Memory” by Donald E. Westlake) **
- “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios) — Fede Álvarez, Rodo Sayagues (based on characters by Dan O’Bannon and Ronald Shusett)
- “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) — Alfred Gough, Miles Millar, Seth Grahame-Smith (based on characters by Michael McDowell, Larry Wilson)
- “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols (based on “The Bikeriders” by Danny Lyon) **
- “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
- “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris)
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) — Ryan Reynolds, Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, Zeb Wills, Shawn Levy (based on characters from Marvel Comics)
- “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) — Mike White, Ken Daurio (based on characters by Sergio Pablos, Cinco Paul and Ken Daurio)
- “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (No U.S. Distribution) — Embeth Davidtz (based on the book by Alexandra Fuller) **
- “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert)
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard **
- “Emmanuelle” (Neon) — Audrey Diwan, Rebecca Zlotowski (based on “Emmanuelle” by Emmanuelle Arsan) **
- “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) — Barry Jenkins (based on “T-Rex” by Zackary Canepari, Drea Cooper)
- “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) — Henrietta Ashworth, Jessica Ashworth, Rosanne Flynn (based on “Queen’s Gambit” by Elizabeth Freemantle)
- “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) — Scott McGehee, David Siegel (based on the book by Sigrid Nunez) **
- “The Front Room” (A24) — Max Eggers, Sam Egegrs (based on “The Front Room” by Susan Hill)
- “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) — George Miller, Nico Lathouris (based on characters by George Miller, Byron Kennedy, Nico Lathouris)
- “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni)
- “Here” (Sony Pictures) — Eric Roth, Robert Zemeckis (based on “Here” by Richard McGuire)
- “Hit Man” (Netflix) — Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)
- “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega (based on “I’m Still Here” by Marcelo Rubens Paiva)
- “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) — Michael Showalter, Jennifer Westfedt (based on the novel by Robinne Lee)
- “The Imaginary” (Netflix) — Yoshiaki Nishimura (based on “The Imaginary” by Nishimura)
- “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures) — Christy Hall (based on the novel by Colleen Hoover)
- “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — Scott Silver, Todd Phillips (based on characters by DC Comics)
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) — Josh Friedman (based on characters by Rick Jadda and Amanda Silver and the novel by Pierre Boulle)
- “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures) — Dahvi Walker (based on the novel by Kazuo Ishiguro) **
- “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) — Lem Dobbs, Marion Hume, John Collee (based on “The Lives of Lee Miller” by Antony Penrose)
- “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) — Mike Flanagan (based on the novel by Stephen King) **
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David G. Derrick Jr (based on characters by Ron Clements, Jon Musker, Chris Williams, Pamela Ribon, Jared Bush, Don Hall, Aaron Kandell, Jordan Kandell)
- “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal) — Michel Hazanavicius, Jean-Claude Grumberg (based on the novel by Grumberg)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on book “Derriere la haine” by Barbara Abel and the film “Duelles” directed by Oliver Masset-Depasse)
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (based on Disney’s “The Lion King” by Irene Mecchi, Jonathan Roberts, Linda Woolverton)
- “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller (based on “Nightbitch” by Rachel Yoder)
- “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker)
- “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) — Paul Schrader (based on “Foregone” by Russell Banks) **
- “On Swift Horses” (No U.S. Distribution) — Bryce Kass (based on the novel by Shannon Pufahl) **
- “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) — Zach Baylin (based on “The Silent Brotherhood” by Kevin Flynn and Gary Gerhardt)
- “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Amy Liptrot, Nora Fingscheidt, Daisy Lewis (based on the book by Liptrot)
- “The Penguin Lessons” (No U.S. Distribution) — Tom Michell, Jeff Pope (based on the book by Michell) **
- “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson)
- “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs) **
- “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) — John Collee, Edward Bond, Uberto Pasolini (based on “The Odyssey” by Homer) **
- “Rez Ball” (Netflix) — Sydney Freeland, Sterlin Harjo (based on “Canyon Dreams” by Michael Powell)
- “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
- “Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)
- “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — Tyler Perry (based on “WAC Corporal Lena Derriecott and the 6888th Central Postal Battalion” by Kevin M. Hymel)
- “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) — Enda Walsh (based on the novel by Claire Keegan)
- “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures) — Pat Casey, Josh Miller, John Whittington (based on Sonic the Hedgehog by Sega)
- “That Christmas” (Netflix) — Richard Curtis, Peter Souter (based on “That Christmas” by Curtis)
- “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures) — Eric Pearson, Andrew Barrer, Gabriel Ferrari (based on Transformers by Hasbro)
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — Mark L. Smith, Joseph Kosinski (based on characters by Michael Crichton and Anne-Marie Martin)
- “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix) — Shannon Tindle, Marc Haimes (based on “Ultraman” by Tsuburaya Productions)
- “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) — Eric Champnella, Alex Harris, John Hindman (based on “Unstoppable: From Underdog to Undefeated: How I Became a Champion” by Anthony Robles, Austin Murphy)
- “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures) — Kelly Marcel (based on characters from Marvel Comics)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix) — Mark Burton, Nick Park (based on “Wallace & Gromit” by Park)
- “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) — Winnie Holzman (based on musical “Wicked” by Stephen Schwartz, novel “Wicked” by Gregory Maguire and character from “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz” by L. Frank Baum)
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown)
- “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) — Ethan Hawke, Shelby Gaines (based on short stories by Flannery O’Connor)
- “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) — Angelina Jolie (based on the novel by Alessandro Baricco) **
- “Young Werther” (No U.S. Distribution) — José Lourenço (based on “The Sorrows of Young Werther” by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe) **
- “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (based on “Young Woman and the Sea” by Glenn Stout)

More Information (Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay)

Cord Jefferson accepts the Best Adapted Screenplay award for "American Fiction" at the 96th Annual Oscars held at Dolby Theatre on March 10, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. — Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety

2024 category winner: “American Fiction” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

—	—
Best Picture	Director
Actor in a Leading Role	Actress in a Leading Role
Actor in a Supporting Role	Actress in a Supporting Role
Original Screenplay	Adapted Screenplay
Animated Feature	Production Design
Cinematography	Costume Design
Film Editing	Makeup and Hairstyling
Sound	Visual Effects
Original Score	Original Song
Documentary Feature	International Feature
Animated Short	Documentary Short
Live Action Short	Casting (coming in 2026)

2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.