Why Borderlands, Megalopolis and More Bombed

Lionsgate’s genre-spanning 2024 slate of heist comedies, weepy coming-of-age tales, cheeky video game adaptations and horror stories was aiming to fill a void. Most of these were the kinds of movies that major Hollywood studios have either stopped making entirely or largely relegated to streaming services.

And yet, instead of packing seats at multiplexes due to pent-up demand, everything from director Eli Roth’s irreverent console-to-screen adventure “Borderlands” ($32 million globally), the “Crow” reboot ($23.7 million) and historical crime drama “1992” ($2.9 million) to Halle Berry’s post-apocalyptic horror story “Never Let Go” ($16.2 million), Dave Bautista-led action-comedy “The Killer’s Game” ($5.9 million), Francis Ford Coppola’s sci-fi epic “Megalopolis” ($11.2 million) and “Wonder” prequel “White Bird” ($6.8 million) has sputtered at the box office. That’s a string of seven consecutive flops — each with paltry single-digit debuts — in the nine weeks between early August and mid-October.

“It was a pretty diverse slate and certainly wasn’t cannibalization of films,” says Matthew Harrigan, a senior analyst at Benchmark Co. “It was more that nothing really worked.”

Lionsgate tends to keep budgets in check and sells foreign rights to its theatrical titles, which helps recoup losses for underperforming movies. In the case of “Megalopolis,” Coppola fronted the
$120 million production costs and other fees. So, as a distributor for hire, the studio will actually make money despite the film’s poor box office showing. The $100 million-budgeted “Borderlands,” a rare
big-budget tentpole for Lionsgate, is expected to result in a $30 million write-down. Yet for the most part, none of the studio’s misses is damaging enough to force heads in the C-suite to roll.

“Lionsgate does a good job at mitigating risk on their releases. Nonetheless, you can’t hedge that bad of a run,” Harrigan says. “The cumulative loss from mid-budget films can be as bad as a tentpole.”

The downturn is striking when compared with the studio’s streak last year of “John Wick: Chapter 4” ($440 million worldwide), “Saw X” ($111 million) and “The Hunger Games” prequel “The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” ($348 million). Those films, as well as most of 2024’s lineup, were greenlit by then-motion picture group chair Joe Drake, who was replaced by Adam Fogelson in January.

Industry experts commend Lionsgate for catering to underserved demographics, such as faith-based crowds and Black audiences. Low-budget Christian drama “Unsung Hero” powered to $21 million in August, while horror satire “The Blackening” amassed $18 million in 2022 and justified a sequel.

“Part of their strategy is filling the gaps. Strategically it’s a smart thing to do,” says Jason Squire, professor emeritus of USC School of Cinematic Arts. “But this is the ancient struggle of the movie business: You just don’t know if audiences will show up.”

Wall Street has been skeptical of Lionsgate’s ability to compete in a media business dominated by tech giants and studios that exist within sprawling conglomerates. Shares are trading at $7.84, falling more than 30% from the prior year. Lionsgate Studios is spinning off from the premium cable network Starz, to cleanly separate the two businesses and pave the way for potential M&A deals.

Upcoming releases like King of Pop biopic “Michael,” Ana de Armas-led “John Wick” spinoff “Ballerina,” another “Hunger Games” prequel and “Now You See Me 3” could spark a rebound in fortunes in 2025 and beyond. And Lionsgate is turning to its vast library to expand the life of movies beyond the screen, with planned stage adaptations of “La La Land,” “Dirty Dancing” and “The Hunger Games.”

Lionsgate is far from the only studio that’s endured challenges in 2024 — just ask Warner Bros., Universal or Apple, which fielded expensive misfires like “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “The Fall Guy,” “Argylle” and “Fly Me to the Moon.” As a whole, the domestic box office is struggling, with revenues down more than 11% from the same point in 2023.

“It’s not unique to Lionsgate to be in this challenging economic time,” says Squire. “But they don’t have the ‘magic’ that big studios have in terms of shifting dollars around and being protected from major losses.”