2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): All eyes are on Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña as they enter the supporting actress race for Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.” Oscar history shows it’s not uncommon for multiple actresses from the same film to be nominated in the supporting category; over 33% of past lineups have featured more than one actress from a single movie.

Saldaña, already a box office heavyweight, is emerging as an early frontrunner thanks to her roles in four of the highest-grossing films of all time. While her screen time in “Emilia Pérez” is nearly equal to that of co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, the decision to campaign Saldaña in the supporting category follows a familiar Oscars strategy. A prime example is “Chicago” (2002), where Catherine Zeta-Jones won the supporting actress Oscar while Renée Zellweger was nominated in the lead category. Coincidentally, Zeta-Jones was joined by co-star Queen Latifah, who also came from the music industry — a promising parallel for Gomez.

This approach could work in Gomez’s favor. Coming off her first Emmy nomination for “Only Murders in the Building,” she shines in “Emilia Pérez” as Jessi, the estranged wife of the title character. Blending emotional depth with her undeniable star power, Gomez’s performance has already generated buzz. If both she and Saldaña score nominations, it would make history as the first time two Latinas are nominated in the same category for the same film. So far, only two Latinas have won acting Oscars: Rita Moreno for “West Side Story” (1961) and Ariana DeBose for the 2022 remake — both for playing the same character.

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On the other side of the Oscar conversation is Saoirse Ronan, who is entering the race with two highly anticipated performances. Ronan is competing for best actress for “The Outrun,” a Sundance hit, and in the supporting actress category for “Blitz,” a World War II epic. If she’s nominated for both roles, Ronan would become the 13th person and the youngest actor to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Of the 12 actors to accomplish this feat, seven went on to win an Oscar for one of their roles, including legends like Jessica Lange and Al Pacino.

In “Blitz,” which opens the BFI London Film Festival, Ronan portrays Rita, a mother desperate to reunite with her young son after sending him to the countryside for safety. The film, written and directed by Steve McQueen, boasts a stellar cast, including Harris Dickinson and Stephen Graham, adding to its growing anticipation.

Meanwhile, Danielle Deadwyler is making her mark with “The Piano Lesson,” directed by Malcolm Washington. Deadwyler stars as Berniece, an emotionally charged widow in this adaptation of August Wilson’s 1987 play. Historically, the role of Berniece has been campaigned in the supporting category, which is likely where Deadwyler will be placed this awards season. The character has been portrayed by actresses such as S. Epatha Merkerson and Danielle Brooks, both receiving critical acclaim.

Deadwyler’s standout performance as Mamie Till in “Till” (2022) had many pegging her as a sure-fire Oscar contender last year. While she received a SAG nomination, her snub by the Academy was one of the season’s biggest surprises. Hopefully, with her decisive turn in “The Piano Lesson,” Deadwyler will get the recognition she deserves this time.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.