2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): This year’s supporting actor contenders feel a bit thinner than usual, but that could easily change before the Academy finalizes its five nominees. With so many potential contenders still waiting to make their mark, it’s safe to say that surprises could be lurking around the corner.

We’re still waiting on some official category confirmations and first looks for films like Kieran Culkin’s turn in “A Real Pain,” Gabriel LaBelle in “Saturday Night,” and the ever-dynamic Denzel Washington, who’s suiting up for his villainous role in “Gladiator II.” John Magaro and Peter Sarsgaard are also in the mix for their work in “September 5,” depending on where the actors decide to campaign.

In breaking news, Variety can now confirm that both Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor, the heartthrobs from Luca Guadagnino’s tennis-throuple love story “Challengers,” have decided to submit as supporting actors. This could add some unexpected heat to the competition. With their palpable chemistry on screen, their double entry might be the spark the supporting actor race needs this year.

Also in the wings is Edward Norton’s performance in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown.” There is no word yet on whether Norton’s portrayal will have the impact we expect, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on with three previous noms (“Primal Fear,” “American History X” and “Birdman”). Meanwhile, fans of the “Wicked” musical adaptation will be eager to see if Jonathan Bailey and Jeff Goldblum can enter the conversation.

In the meantime, Clarence Maclin continues to pop up in the awards discussion for his stellar performance in Greg Kwedar’s prison drama “Sing Sing.” At the same time, we can’t overlook Stanley Tucci, a true veteran, who’s delivering what could be one of his best performances yet in Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave,” which premiered at Telluride. Tucci’s a familiar face at the Oscars, and the Academy will likely not miss the chance to acknowledge his work.

Then there’s Guy Pearce, whose buzzworthy role in Brady Corbet’s epic “The Brutalist” could remind us why he’s a Hollywood mainstay. With a runtime that spans four hours, it’ll be interesting to see if the Academy’s Actors Branch has the patience (and the time) to appreciate the scale of his performance fully.

Veteran actor John Turturro, who has been overlooked for an Oscar nod despite standout performances in films like “Quiz Show” (1994), could finally find himself in the mix for “The Room Next Door.” Turturro plays Damian, a passionate climate change advocate and former lover to both women in the film (Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton), delivering a climactic scene near the end that could secure his spot in the conversation.

Finally, don’t count out Brian Tyree Henry. Known for bringing depth and emotion to every role he takes on, Henry could land another nomination, this time for his portrayal of Jason Crutchfield, coach to Olympic boxing champion Claressa Shields, in the inspirational film “The Fire Inside.” With past Oscar-nominated boxing coaches like Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man” and Burgess Meredith in “Rocky,” Henry could find himself joining the ranks of memorable mentors who received the Academy’s invitation.

As always, the supporting actor category remains unpredictable. With a mix of familiar faces and exciting new contenders, this year is shaping up to be interesting. Check out the updated rankings below.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.